canvassing in Iowa

Saturday, January 10th, my first day canvassing in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. It was cold and most people didn't want to talk. I even got a few who quickly closed their doors (I wouldn't quite say "slammed"). I was feeling cold and dejected.

And then, I knocked on another door - Kathlene, a middle aged woman registered as a Democrat, according to my list - and she said I looked cold and invited me inside. I started telling her why I was there, and she listened and asked questions. Her husband, sitting on the couch in the next room, chimed in. He introduced himself as Bruce, and said he was probably too cranky to be on any of our canvassing lists, and he was registered independent, but he was curious too.

Both of them were informed, politically interested, and had been paying a lot of attention to the campaign. Neither of them had made up their mind who to support. And neither of them was considering going to their precinct caucus on January 19th. In fact, Kathlene has never caucused before. Bruce told me that when Tom Harkin endorsed Dean, that really made him sit up and take notice. They both greatly respect Tom Harkin, who Bruce described as an honest man and a hard worker who they could trust. He didn't think Harkin was going to endorse anyone, so when he stuck out his neck for Dean, that was worth looking into.

"But", Bruce added, "you're the first person I've spoked to who really knows who this Howard Dean guy is." He explained that, being in Iowa, they are bombarded by TV ads, campaign literature, calls from campaign workers, and so on. They don't know who to believe. Obviously each campaign is going to try to push its message. But since I, a volunteer, came in person, this was authentic contact with a real person come to tell him about Dean, not being paid to do so.

Since Kathlene had never caucused before, I told her what I know about how it works. I told her that I wish I could be there to see it, it sounds interesting. She mused and said, yes, maybe she would try it. Bruce chimed in, "yes, you should go, I think you'll find it interesting. And I'll go too, just to make sure you come :)" By the end of our 30 minute conversation, both of them had decided to caucus for Dean. They even told me about their older relative in northern Iowa, who was supporting Kerry, but they didn't think she had really good reasons to. They were going to call her again the next day, and ask her to consider Dean instead.

The two most significant things that made up his mind to support Dean, Bruce said, were Tom Harkin's endorsement, and "that you drove all the way out here from Massachusetts and showed up at our doorstep. That really impressed me."

Their house was not a typical canvassing stop, of course. Each day you go canvassing, there are usually 1 or 2 houses that really make your day. They make up for all the people who weren't home or just weren't interested. But a far more typical conversation, one that happened several times an hour on each of the four days I spent in Iowa, had a part that went like this:

Have you considered going to your caucus on January 19th?
I wasn't planning to.
Have you ever caucused before?
No, I don't really do that
Do you know what a caucus is like, how it works?
Not really...
It's kind of interesting. You go there and at a certain time, they ask you to get into groups. If you support Edwards, go stand over there. If you support Dean, stand there. If you support Gephardt, stand there. And so on. People form into clumps by candidate, and there's usually a clump of undecided people. Then people from the other groups get a chance to talk if they want, about why they support their candidate, and some of the undecided people might come over to join their group. There's a precinct captain who figures out if any of the groups are too small to elect a delegate, and if so, he tells them, and they all have to decide what other group they want to join. Then they just count the people in each clump. I wish I could go to one of these and see it, but I don't live here so I can't.
I wouldn't really know what to say, I haven't had time to look into the candidates enough to be able to tell people about them...
That's okay, you don't have to speak. I just talked to someone the other day whose wife was going to caucus for the first time. He told me the first time he went, he just stood quietly, and he's felt more comfortable with it in the years since and now he does talk. But all you have to do is stand with the Dean group and be counted. You can watch and listen and see what it's like, and you'll feel better about it for next time.
Oh, hmm. That does sound interesting. I think I may go.
That would be great! In a typical year, fewer than 1 in 30 Iowans go to their caucus, so the few who do have a tremendous amount of influence. In some precincts, it only takes 3-6 people to elect a delegate for your candidate. I really hope you go. Your caucus is at [nearby location] at 6:30pm next Monday, January 19th.

It's amazing to me how few people have even considered going to caucus - and how easy it is to get someone who's considering supporting Dean, to also consider going to caucus for him, even if they weren't thinking about it before I knocked on their door.

This first state of the primary season is going to be all about canvassing. That's what makes Iowa so unpredictable. The campaign that canvasses the largest number of houses on this long weekend, will win Iowa. It's as simple as that, I believe. Dean, Gephardt, Kerry, and Edwards, all have enough supporters out there to win Iowa. Most of those supporters will stay home on the evening of January 19th. The campaign that reaches the greatest number of their supporters by visiting them in person, and talks them into caucusing, will win.

Gephardt is running only in Iowa. His entire staff is there, and he's spent all of his money there, saving none for after January 19th. His theory is that if he wins Iowa, people will give him more money to keep going. Kerry is running just in Iowa and New Hampshire. Add Edwards to the mix, and there's a lot more campaign staff in Iowa trying to find caucusers against Dean, than for Dean. But we have more volunteers. Many, many more volunteers. This contest will turn on exactly one thing: How many of our volunteers will actually go to Iowa this weekend, and canvass.

If we win Iowa, then we'll win New Hampshire, and then the contest will effectively be over. We can translate the double whammy into solid wins in Arizona and likely Missouri, the two biggest of the 7 February 3rd states. Gephardt and Kerry will probably drop out. And before long, we'll be able to mount our full campaign energies against George Bush.

If we don't win Iowa, the primary campaign will drag on until at least mid-March, and possibly even until the convention in August. We'll have that much less time to campaign against Bush, after having spent that much more time with fighting among the Democrats.

Help end it soon. Go to Iowa this weekend.

P.S. the Boston Globe has a story today about people going to Iowa, which includes an interview with me.